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Alice Cicirello, Robin Langley


An approach to uncertainty in probabilistic assignments with application to vibro-acoustic problems

Abstract

In this paper a novel imprecise probability description is applied to vibro-acoustic problems in engineering. Frequently little data is available concerning the variability of the key input parameters required for a predictive analysis. This has led to widespread use of several uncertainty descriptions. The hybrid Finite Element/Statistical Energy Analysis (FE/SEA) approach to the analysis of vibro-acoustic systems is based on subdividing a system into: (i) SEA components which incorporate a non-parametric model of uncertainty and (ii) FE components with parametric uncertainty. This approach, combined with the Laplace asymptotic method, allows the evaluation of the failure probability. A novel strategy for establishing bounds on the failure probability when an imprecise probability model (based on expressing the probability density function of a random variable in the form of a maximum entropy distribution with bounded parameters) is employed is presented. The approach is illustrated by application to a built-up plate system.

Keywords

Uncertainties in probabilistic assignments, hybrid FE/SEA method, reliability analysis, maximum entropy distribution, vibro-acoustic analysis


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E-mail addresses

Alice Cicirello   ac685@cam.ac.uk
Robin Langley  rsl21@cam.ac.uk

Send any remarks to isipta13@hds.utc.fr.