Matthias Troffaes, Simon Blake

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A Robust Data Driven Approach to Quantifying Common-Cause Failure in Power Networks

Abstract

The standard alpha-factor model for common cause failure assumes symmetry, in that all components must have identical failure rates. In this paper, we generalise the alpha-factor model to deal with asymmetry, in order to apply the model to power networks, which are typically asymmetric. For parameter estimation, we propose a set of conjugate Dirichlet-Gamma priors, and we discuss how posterior bounds can be obtained. Finally, we demonstrate our methodology on a simple yet realistic example.

Keywords

robust, alpha-factor, failure, reliability, Gamma, Dirichlet

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E-mail addresses

Matthias Troffaes		matthias.troffaes@gmail.com
Simon Blake		s.r.blake@durham.ac.uk